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Prospects
An iconic billboard in the quintessential boom city of Shenzhen features Deng’s famous statement that China's “basic line will not waver for 100 years.” If Deng was right, we are less than one-third of the way into the era of “reform and opening.” But four challenges identified by Premier Wen Jiabao in 2010, that growth becomes “unbalanced, unstable, uncoordinated, or unsustainable,” threaten the boom. The key to balance lies in increasing the consumer share of GDP, allowing China to create a modern consumer economy. Stability will depend on the government's ability to address grievances as the gap between winners and losers widens. Coordination is the great test facing the ruling Communist Party, of whether it can manage the politics of growth without fundamental changes to the system. Sustainability is an issue that has global implications, as citizens of a warming planet watch anxiously to see if China is successful in greening the boom. The fifth great challenge, left out by Premier Wen, may be the external one: whether the world is successful in making room for China. |
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Vietnam May Grow Like China, But India is DifferentPeriod: Prospects
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Click to expand It's interesting, I travel obviously to both India and China frequently. There seems to be, from the Indian perspective, a competition with China. However, the manner of development is really quite different. The development in India is really led by a lot of the private sector, whereas in china, at least in my opinion, there's more focus on the public sector, in terms of investment and infrastructure. That's an area where I think India...I think the business people and the private sector people realize they don't have the same degree of consistent support over time for investment and infrastructure. I would say that although Indian business would like to follow a similar path, and they're doing really well, we're having tremendous success in India, certain segments are very successful. The path that they're following is slightly different because of lack of consistency in infrastructure and investment. I think a country like Vietnam will be proceeding in a manner similar to China, although they may have few different challenge. Some of the other countries however in rest of Asia, probably will face different challenges from China, such as the south asian countries. But I think two of the most interesting, comparatively would be Vietnam and India. Vietnam following a relatively similar path, India having a bit more challenges in investment and infrastructure.
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