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An iconic billboard in the quintessential boom city of Shenzhen features Deng’s famous statement that China's “basic line will not waver for 100 years.” If Deng was right, we are less than one-third of the way into the era of “reform and opening.” But four challenges identified by Premier Wen Jiabao in 2010, that growth becomes “unbalanced, unstable, uncoordinated, or unsustainable,” threaten the boom. The key to balance lies in increasing the consumer share of GDP, allowing China to create a modern consumer economy. Stability will depend on the government's ability to address grievances as the gap between winners and losers widens. Coordination is the great test facing the ruling Communist Party, of whether it can manage the politics of growth without fundamental changes to the system. Sustainability is an issue that has global implications, as citizens of a warming planet watch anxiously to see if China is successful in greening the boom. The fifth great challenge, left out by Premier Wen, may be the external one: whether the world is successful in making room for China.

China is Walking A Tightrope

Period: Prospects | The Politics of Growth

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Meettheexpert

Lei Bo

Student

Lei Bo, from Taiyuan, in Shaanxi Province, is a student majoring in Chinese philosophy. He also holds a BA in Chemistry from Nankai University and an MA in Chemistry from Peking University. His father is a scholar studying the energy economy of Shaanxi Province and his mother is a retired librarian.

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Actually, we are very confused. Maybe a lot of people are extremely bullish on China's future, but I would say that, personally, I am extremely confused. What will happen going forward is, to a large extent, not going to be decided by economics, neither will it be determined by the global environment, it is really in the hands of the Chinese people, even in the hands of a small number of politicians. And what will happen in the next 30 years is probably going to be determined by the political situation in China in the next ten years. Because we haven't talked about the political developments of the past 30 years, for example, I think that Hu Jintao's succeeding Jiang Zemin was a very big political development. While it involved a lot of competition and power struggle, in comparison to every other power struggle in modern Chinese history, this one has actually brought great benefits. At least on the surface, the transfer of power has been very smooth. But, going forward, how is it going to be? To what extent can they further China's economic and political reform? What system of checks and balances will the next generation of leaders have between themselves so that when they encounter difficulties they won't be walking too far ahead or too far behind? Because we all believe that China is currently walking a tightrope. Whether they move to the left or the right, there is a possibility of falling off. I think the key point is whether the government of the next ten years, or 30 years, will be able to keep this balance well. Currently, a lot of people are optimistic about this because the leaders-to-be already seem to have a basic structure. But is this the way that it will be? Because history is too complicated and the tightrope is too narrow, it is extremely hard to keep the balance. So, personally, I don't dare have any particularly optimistic or pessimistic view.

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Cite this Source >>
“China is Walking A Tightrope | Lei Bo | Prospects | The China Boom Project.”
The China Boom Project.
The Asia Society Center on US-China Relations.
1 June 2010.
Web.
09 May 2025.
<https://chinaboom.asiasociety.org/period/prospects/33/180>.
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