Ramping up its export juggernaut and taking full advantage of WTO entry, China’s economy in the first decade of the new millennium was “boom with no bust.” The information revolution fed more growth, as hundreds of millions of Chinese came online. But the Internet also became a forum for discontent, and the new leadership team of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao acknowledged growing environmental and social justice concerns with their call for a more harmonious society. Then, as the credit crisis in the US spread into a global economic crisis, China’s export-dependent growth appeared in jeopardy, and fears of a Chinese crash surfaced. But, as in 1998, China weathered the storm, and emerged in 2010 as the world’s largest exporter, largest foreign creditor, and fastest growing major economy, poised to soon surpass Japan and eventually eclipse the United States as the biggest economy on the planet.
Susan Shirk is director of the University of California system-wide Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation and professor of political science. Shirk first traveled to China in 1971 and has been doing research there ever since. During 1997-2000, Shirk served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs, with responsibility for China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Mongolia. She founded in 1993 and continues to lead the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD), an unofficial “track-two” forum for discussions of security issues among defense and foreign ministry officials and academics from the United States, Japan, China, Russia and the Koreas. Shirk served as a member of the U.S. Defense Policy Board, the Board of Governors for the East-West Center (Hawaii), the Board of Trustees of the U.S.-Japan Foundation, and the Board of Directors of the National Committee on United States-China Relations. She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and an emeritus member of the Aspen Strategy Group. As Senior Adviser to The Albright Group, Shirk advises private sector clients on China and East Asia.
Well, my view is that it isn’t going back to the planned economy. Happily, the market competition and opening to the world is maintained, although we’re keeping an eye on whether or not China develops more protectionist policies. So far it’s still pretty good. But what you see is that the fruits of the boom are monopolized by a class of people who have political power, political influence, and important economic roles. So, the distribution of the benefits in the 80s, especially with the household responsibility system, you just saw the benefits to the rural population were huge, lifting all those people out of poverty, and that’s kind of slowed down. The benefits seem more monopolized by people, business people, who’ve been able to cultivate ties with political officials at the local level, provincial level, central level. And, of course, many of those business people were originally officials. And then, officials themselves who serve on the boards of these things, they get all sorts of corrupt benefits from their symbiotic relationship with the private capitalists. And the state-owned enterprises, the hundred plus big state-owned enterprises, are very, very powerful. Many of those managers now are in the Central Committee, they’re appointed by the Center. We see the Party still, even with companies that are listed on stock markets outside of China -- in Hong Kong, New York, London -- still appointing the leaders of those SOEs. We saw with the telecom companies, they just rotated the executives of the telecom companies. This is another interesting puzzle. If I weren’t working on other things now, I think I’d want to try to understand how, despite the fact that China has become a vibrant market economy, the Communist Party retains such a strong influence over the economy. It’s kind of an interesting puzzle and I think it’s the power of appointment that remains very strong very significant. In other words, if all these guys owed their jobs and their salaries and their bonuses and their corrupt earnings to some Party guys, who appoint them, that makes them very deferential, very loyal, they’re not going to make any trouble.
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