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Overdrive
Ramping up its export juggernaut and taking full advantage of WTO entry, China’s economy in the first decade of the new millennium was “boom with no bust.” The information revolution fed more growth, as hundreds of millions of Chinese came online. But the Internet also became a forum for discontent, and the new leadership team of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao acknowledged growing environmental and social justice concerns with their call for a more harmonious society. Then, as the credit crisis in the US spread into a global economic crisis, China’s export-dependent growth appeared in jeopardy, and fears of a Chinese crash surfaced. But, as in 1998, China weathered the storm, and emerged in 2010 as the world’s largest exporter, largest foreign creditor, and fastest growing major economy, poised to soon surpass Japan and eventually eclipse the United States as the biggest economy on the planet. |
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Change in Leadership Causes a Change in PolicyPeriod: Overdrive (2000s)
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Click to expand I differ from most China experts. They still believe that the Chinese Communist Party's legitimacy relies on economic growth. That was true in the past 27 years, but since 2003, it is no longer true, because Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao believe that the most important thing for the country is the redistribution of wealth. It is social cohesion and environmental concern and energy consumption. This is the so-called scientific development, harmonious society. So, they want to build up their legitimacy not only with economic growth, but also with harmonious society and scientific development, which means they should pay more attention to social issues and distribution of wealth and environmental cost and energy consumption, rational consumption. So, again, it's a whole package, not only economic growth. If you look at the career background of Chinese leaders during the past 30 years, you will see two shifts. First, the rise of technocrats, meaning engineers turned political leaders. From the early 1980s, when Deng Xiaoping promoted people like Li Peng, Zhu Rongji and Jiang Zemin, they were all engineers by training. For the 16th Party Congress in 2002, 9 top leaders, members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo, were all engineers; Jiang Zemin, Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao, etc. So, they're all engineers. But now, you see that it's started to change. If you look at the current, so-called fifth generation leadership, we refer to Mao the first generation, Deng as second, Jiang as third, Hu Jintao as fourth, the current leaders, like Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang and so-called fifth generation, there are eight of these leaders now in the Politburo and Secretariat, the six people's body. These are very powerful figures, in about four years they will become the most important leaders in the country. Look at their educational backgrounds, look at the highest degrees that they have received. None of them are from the area of engineering. So, usually, they studied law, politics, management and economics. And Wang Jisan, vice premier, studied history; Bo Xilai, the Party Secretary of Chongqing, also a Politburo member, studied journalism; Wang Funing is a member of the Secretariat and he studied political science. So, that, again, indicates a moving away from technocrats to a more diversified political leadership, mainly by economists, or people trained as lawyers, or those who studied politics. Now, that will have a profound impact on Chinese society. Early on, when I mentioned the rule of technocrats, the 1990s was characterized by the rule of technocrats. They ignored the environmental consequences, they decided to build the Three Gorges Dam. But, now, that era is coming to an end. There is more attention to social harmony, economic distribution, environmental protection and China's energy needs, etc. So, in many ways, the change of leadership also leads to a change in policies and politics. Again, going back to the early years, in the Mao era, the leaders were usually long marchers, they did not receive good education, so the constant scene in the Mao era was anti-intellectual. The Cultural Revolution was an example. So, because those leaders were insecure about the threat of the educated leaders, there was a famous line, "Reds versus Experts," that reflected that kind of concern. But that change led to the economic reform and rise of technocrats. Now, in my view, the next phase will be political reform and I think that, sooner or later, it will take place.
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